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Aston Villa vs Liverpool

Wed 30 Dec 2026, 20:00 UTC · Round 18 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Aston Villa win: 31.1%

Draw: 22.9%

Liverpool win: 46.0%

Predicted: Liverpool

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 65.9%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 69.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.03

More corners: Liverpool (43.0% home / 57.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Liverpool

Yes

Probability Liverpool wins or draws: 72.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Liverpool Clearest lean of the available outcomes (46% vs next-best 31%). (46.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (66.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (70.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Liverpool win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (72.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.